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The Afghan war: the future Evil for the west after ISIS defeat?

The Afghan country has no peace. We know this is so since ancient times. Yet this is not enough to prepare the soul, even to us in the West, Europe and North America, to this inescapable fate.

After all, the twenty-first century began right here in Afghanistan with the invasion of Soviet Russia in search of a survival reason to its own corpse, thinking at the separatist Caucasus, never completely tamed even if subdued.

But is there, in that war that ends painfully the twentieth century and opens the new one, the twenty-first: the century of the First Permanent World War. No longer two opposing blocs that clung to itself, in all possible ways without exception, weaker states with the ideological pretext of supremacy in the economic management of human communities but five or six contenders that move today on the world proscenium how many cockerels in a chicken coop ready to peck at each other even at the cost of canceling each other out. This state of things generates a dynamic quite evident that, in view of the obvious fact that no one is able to counteract as the only world power, the password is to weaken the other, in every way and everywhere. Obviously the result is the proliferation of local wars which in turn destabilize a region or another and possibly more regions simultaneously. Think about it, we have replaced the red enemy with the Green enemy, radical Islam. Of course even the new doctor puts a lot of effort, but could it be otherwise? Obviously not, because even in the opposite side will generate internal wars to maintain or gain power. And then it is clear that the situation of all against all is convenient to so many, even to most. The ideology and religion today are replaced by the simple pragmatism of interest with a capitalism that has won over the Russians and Chinese, the latter with their specific way and with the Islamic world, but above all Islamist as political, claiming their role and that counts on a factor, the time, and demography. I cannot forget a quote attributed to Osama bin Laden: you (the West) have the weapons, we (those in particular?) the time.

Certain that the current situation in Afghanistan after the US invasion post 11/09 seems to agree with him. Almost a couple of decades, and we returned to the starting point in a sort of game to the massacre. Massacre of civilians, of military, of dignity, of human rights.

In the aftermath of the victory over the Russians, or rather of their retreat, one of the main architects of the Afghan resistance the Tajik commander Amhed “the lion of Panjshir” Shad Massoud will readily made out by al Qaeda two days before the September 11, too cumbersome in the future scenario of Afghanistan not Pashtun.

Same fate will befall even to another fighter acceptable to the Americans Abdul Haq a.k.a. Hollywood Haq, but also he will be done out of the country's political scene to bring out at the end the Karzai clan.

Needless to say much on this stage: corruption and nepotism, but mostly ingratitude tell the Americans who put him, supported and maintained at the head of a country increasingly insecure.

But not enough, still not enough.

Afghanistan is now ready to get back under the light of the international spotlight as soon as it runs out of media power that tells the epilogue of the caliphate. Mosul and Raqqa, and then explode the new "emergency" while the Islamic State could catch his breath, not only unmolested but also pampered and cared for by those who support it. The Taliban are now ready to recapture. The summer and autumn campaign is almost at its peak: much of the land is already in Taliban hands. The Youth, certainly not a homogeneous composite structure but which seem, will have easy game to recover Kabul. The agency O.N.U. for the fight against crime and drug trafficking UNODC in these days makes us know in Afghanistan, thanks to the low presence of a strong government, of  institutions supported by a pact between citizens and the state, the opium production areas and the production per hectare have increased and is clearing its crop eradication policy.

The Taliban have proceeded in their advance coming to terms with the local populations while attacking the poor and inefficient Iraqi armed forces.

After fifteen years we are at the starting point; but still it is not all.

And no because in the meantime the world has changed, today we are in the permanent war and then Afghanistan in these conditions is useful for many local actors; it is useful to someone to destabilize Russia's borders in the south, others to keep Westerners engaged in, the Pakistanis to control Afghanistan and maybe the increasingly profitable opium trade. So there is something for all tastes. Perverse but always tastes are.

P.S. I forgot: the Islamic State is also present in Afghanistan.


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